The Rwandan government issued a clear ultimatum this Saturday, March 14: without sustained funding and political recognition of its actions, Kigali will withdraw its forces engaged against the jihadist insurgency in northern Mozambique.

A financial black hole for Kigali

Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe expressed his country's exasperation with the financial imbalance of the operation. While the European Union contributed €20 million through the European Peace Facility, Rwanda claims to have injected ten times that amount.

"We are not prepared to see our soldiers questioned or sanctioned by the very countries that benefit from our intervention," the minister insisted on the social network X.

Diplomatic tensions and security paradox

This threat of withdrawal comes amid heightened international tensions:

1. Western sanctions: Washington and Brussels recently sanctioned Rwandan military officials for their alleged support of M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
2. Feeling of ingratitude: Kigali denounces the hypocrisy of foreign powers who benefit from the security of Cabo Delgado province while criticizing the Rwandan army on other fronts.

The economic stakes: Pressurized gas

The withdrawal of Rwandan forces (approximately 1,000 troops deployed since 2021) would jeopardize massive energy projects. The region holds vast reserves of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exploited by giants such as ExxonMobil , ENI , and especially TotalEnergies .

The French group has just announced the resumption of its $20 billion project, frozen since 2021 after a bloody attack in Palma. A Rwandan withdrawal could shatter this fragile stability regained in a region where the conflict has already claimed the lives of more than 6,400 people .