Following a resurgence of violence in northern Ethiopia, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) officially welcomed international calls for de-escalation on Saturday, January 31, 2026. The movement stated its readiness to participate in any mediation efforts led by the African Union (AU).

A specter of war looms once again.

Northern Lebanon is once again under high tension. Direct clashes between the federal army and Tigrayan forces recently erupted in Tsemlet , a disputed area in western Tigray. These clashes follow initial skirmishes that occurred in November 2025 in the Afar region.

This instability is reviving the trauma of the civil war (2020-2022), a devastating conflict that caused the death of at least 600,000 people according to the AU — a figure that many experts consider to be well below the reality.

International concerns and blockages

Faced with this risk of conflagration, the international community is issuing numerous warnings:

1. The African Union: Demands "maximum restraint" and offers its services to facilitate dialogue.
2. The European Union: Warns of "serious consequences" for civilians and the stability of the Horn of Africa.

A climate of simmering war

Despite the stated intentions to engage in dialogue, the situation on the ground remains critical:

1. Drone strikes: On Saturday, two drone strikes targeted Tigray, killing a truck driver. While Addis Ababa remains silent, the federal army is the only force operating these aircraft in the region.
2. Air isolation: Since last Thursday, the national airline Ethiopian Airlines has suspended all its flights to Tigray, isolating the province once again.
3. Political tensions: Abiy Ahmed's government accuses the TPLF (formerly in power for 30 years) of having moved closer to neighboring Eritrea, further complicating diplomatic power dynamics.

Note: The silence of the federal army in response to press inquiries underlines the current opacity of the military situation on the ground.