The political landscape of Guinea-Bissau has been shaken by premature declarations of victory following the weekend's presidential election, even before the official results have been released by the National Electoral Commission (CNE) . The two main camps, that of incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo and that of independent candidate Fernando Dias , both claim to have won the race in the first round.

Faced with this tense situation, the CNE launched a general appeal for restraint , urging candidates, political parties, voters and media to avoid any premature proclamations deemed contrary to the electoral framework.

Candidate Dias Claims Victory in the First Round

Fernando Dias , an independent candidate with the support of influential figures, was the first to claim victory. Praising the high voter turnout, his team asserted that they possessed internal data guaranteeing him a sufficient lead to secure the presidency in the first round.

1. Dias is backed by former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira (PAIGC), Embalo's main rival in 2019, whose candidacy for this election was deemed inadmissible. This support is seen as a maneuver to maintain the influence of the PAIGC, which is notably absent from the race.
2. The Dias camp also expressed concerns about potential "attempts to interfere" during the sensitive vote-counting phase.

Camp Embalo Declares Victory and Eliminates a Second Round

In response to his opponent's allegations, the team of incumbent President Umaro Sissoco Embalo reacted swiftly. Through its spokesperson, Oscar Barbosa, the Embalo camp also declared its candidate the winner, stating that its own internal figures confirmed the absence of a runoff election.

1. Context of Embalo's Mandate: Having come to power in 2020, President Embalo is seeking a second term in a notoriously fractured political context, marked by tensions and multiple coup attempts denounced by his administration. His campaign has emphasized the need for institutional stability .

The CNE and the Observers Impose Patience

The CNE firmly reaffirmed that only its institution is authorized to announce the results, insisting on respect for the process to defuse tensions.

1. Turnout Rate: Initial data indicates a turnout of approximately 65% of the 2.2 million voters, a figure considered encouraging for the democratic process.
2. Observers' Opinion: More than 200 observers, notably from ECOWAS , the African Union, and the CPLP, were deployed. Their initial assessments describe the election as having "gone smoothly" despite minor incidents. ECOWAS, deeply committed to the stability of Guinea-Bissau, emphasized the importance of electoral transparency.

The Stakes of a Crucial Election

This presidential election is vital for this small Portuguese-speaking West African nation, which often faces chronic political instability . The country, whose Embalo presidency was marked by tensions and institutional crises, is waiting to see if this election will help consolidate its fragile stability.

The country is waiting for the official announcement of the results that the CNE has promised by Thursday.