A recent study by the NGO Acled, which specializes in documenting victims of conflict, highlights an alarming expansion of terrorist violence from the Sahel to the coastal nations of West Africa. This analysis, published on Thursday, December 11, identifies the consolidation of a "new strategic front" on the borders of Benin, Niger, and Nigeria.

📈 Intensification and Convergence of Armed Groups

ACLED has observed an intensification of operations by armed groups in the central Sahel. Over the past year, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have recorded more than 10,000 deaths related to violence.

Alongside this crisis, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) , affiliated with Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State in the Sahel have significantly extended their area of operation and strengthened their presence in the border areas of northern Benin, Niger and Nigeria.

A major development lies in the growing convergence between Sahelian and Nigerian jihadist groups. Historically distinct theaters of operation are now merging to form a vast area of violence stretching from Mali to western Nigeria. The tri-border region has thus become the "nerve of the conflict."

🇧🇯 Record Security Impact in Benin

Benin is particularly affected by this dynamic. Its northern region, bordering Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria, has experienced "its deadliest year ever recorded" .

1. Increase in Mortality: The country has seen an increase of almost 70% in the number of deaths compared to the first eleven months of 2024.
2. Cross-border operations: JNIM has intensified its operations from eastern Burkina Faso, as evidenced by last April's attack in W National Park, which claimed the lives of more than 50 soldiers.

The Acled study also confirms the now proven presence of Sahelian groups in northwestern and western Nigeria.

🚨 New Methods of Operation and Economic Blockade

Although the human toll is comparable to that of 2024, the NGO highlights a clear intensification and diversification of operational methods :

Country	Noted Operating Procedure	Consequence
Mali	Attacks against fuel convoys (starting in September)	The creation of an economic blockade led to a surge in violence in the regions of Kayes, Sikasso and Ségou, reaching levels unseen since 1997.
Mali and Niger	Increased kidnapping campaigns	22 kidnappings of foreign nationals recorded in Mali and 8 in Niger in 2025.

Acled's analysis highlights a crisis that transcends the traditional boundaries of the central Sahel, signaling an increased risk to the stability of coastal countries in West Africa.