Mali is facing a major security escalation. The fuel war , orchestrated by jihadist groups, is now paralyzing the economy and daily life, prompting an international alert.

🇫🇷 France sounds the alarm and recommends evacuation

Faced with the rapidly deteriorating situation, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs has urged its citizens to leave Mali " as soon as possible " (note issued on November 7). The threat, once confined to rural areas, now extends to Bamako . National highways, formerly vital trade routes, have become " targets of attacks by terrorist groups ." Only commercial flights are still considered safe.

Paris has expressed its " great concern " regarding the safety of its 4,300 nationals registered at the consulate.

The JNIM blockade: a response to the government

For the past two months, the main arteries of southern Mali, crucial for this vast landlocked country whose trade is 90% dependent on coastal ports, have been blocked. Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) , Al-Qaeda's branch in the Sahel, has imposed an embargo on fuel deliveries to the capital. Convoys coming from Abidjan, Dakar, and Conakry are being attacked, and fuel depots are being set on fire.

1. Immediate consequences: Dry gas stations, hospitals without electricity, closed schools and an economy on the verge of implosion.

This strategy is not accidental. In early September 2025, JNIM announced this embargo in retaliation for a decision by the Malian government: the ban on the sale of gasoline in jerrycans . This measure aimed to cut off the jihadists' supply lines.

"It was this ban that sparked the conflict," explains a legal and security expert based in Bamako. "By trying to cut off the terrorists' fuel supply, the government provoked their response: a nationwide blockade."

Mobility and territorial control: the keys to the JNIM

With 5,000 to 6,000 fighters, JNIM does not seek to conquer major cities, but its strength lies in its mobility and its rural base . Where the state is absent – particularly around Gao, Timbuktu and Kidal – it imposes itself as a substitute authority , applying its justice, its taxes and its way of life (closing schools, mandatory wearing of the veil).

This expert insists: "JNIM understood that gasoline is the key to everything : without it, neither the economy nor the war can survive." By cutting off the roads, the jihadists strike at the heart of the state system.

Paralyzing without conquering: hybrid warfare

Observers are unanimous: "The terrorists have neither the means nor the strategy to seize Bamako," a heavily militarized metropolis of 3.5 million inhabitants. Their objective is not to govern, but to paralyze .

Their tactic is a strategy of attrition : a succession of temporary blockades, harassment of convoys, and impositions on isolated villages. "It avoids direct confrontation with Malian forces, but aims to exhaust the state, undermine the morale of the regime, and erode the confidence of the population," the expert summarizes.

The Malian Armed Forces (FAMa), already strained, are struggling to secure a territory three times the size of France. Each convoy of tankers requires a heavy escort, tying up considerable resources and weakening other fronts.

Unexpected resistance and the failure of the Russian gamble

Unexpectedly, the blockade partially backfired. Far from provoking an uprising, it strengthened the bonds of the population . "Malians are exceptionally resilient. (...) This unexpected, peaceful resistance reinforced national cohesion rather than breaking it," the expert observed.

France, for its part, sees the current crisis as a clear failure of the alliance with Moscow : the presence of Russian instructors (from the Wagner galaxy) has not improved security.

1. The situation on the ground: Russian forces focused on protecting the regime and mining sites, neglecting the security of roads and rural areas. Joint operations cost the lives of hundreds of civilians without significantly weakening the armed groups.

However, the expert adds a note of caution: no foreign army was prepared for this asymmetric and hybrid war that combines terrorism, cross-border crime and trafficking.

Hybridization: terrorism and crime merge

The fundamental nature of this conflict has evolved. Historically distinct, terrorism and crime have merged in the Sahel. "Today, the same actors are found on several fronts: drug trafficking, smuggling, hostage ransoms, and armed violence," the expert states.

This convergence is based on:

1. Logistical cooperation : exchange of fuel, weapons and information.
2. Strategic coordination : negotiating territories and profits.
3. The financial merger : joint management of smuggling and terrorist operations.

The psychotropic drug tramadol has even become a major currency. Faced with this " shifting, fluid, cross-border system ," a conventional army is powerless.

The threat of regional collapse

According to the expert, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are an " open-air laboratory for 21st-century hybrid warfare ." The danger extends beyond the Sahel: "The contagion is spreading" to the coastal countries of West Africa.

If the crisis continues, the entire WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union) zone will be impacted. Coastal countries like Côte d'Ivoire (port of Abidjan) and Guinea (port of Conakry) are economically dependent on Bamako.

The expert criticizes ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States): "Instead of addressing the structural causes of the crisis, it has focused on the legitimacy of military regimes."

The priority should be " economic and humanitarian : securing convoys, supporting infrastructure, and preventing the collapse of trade routes." Inaction risks "bringing all of West Africa to its knees " under the combined weight of terrorism, economic chaos, and nationalist isolationism.