Morocco is undergoing a major demographic transformation that is reshaping its society and economy. A recent study by the High Commission for Planning (HCP) , entitled "Demographic Dynamics and Implications for Public Policy" , highlights this change, based on the 2024 General Population and Housing Census (RGPH) and projections up to 2040. This report highlights the need for public authorities to rethink their strategies in the face of declining fertility , aging , rapid urbanization and changes in households .

A Rapid Demographic Transition

In about fifty years, Morocco has completed a demographic transition that took industrialized countries almost a century:

1. Falling Fertility: The rate has fallen from 7.2 children per woman in 1960 to 1.97 in 2024. This decline reflects profound societal changes such as the postponement of the age of marriage, access to education, urbanization and the widespread use of contraception.
2. Increase in Life Expectancy: It jumped from 47 years in 1960 to 76.4 years in 2024 , thanks to improved living conditions and health progress.

This dual dynamic is profoundly changing the demographic structure and requires new political directions.

Population Growth and Pressure on Resources

Although the growth rate is slowing significantly (from 2.6% in the 1970s to 0.85% in 2024, with a forecast of 0.6% by 2040), the Moroccan population continues to increase. Having grown from 11.6 million in 1960 to 36.8 million in 2024 , it is expected to reach 40.5 million by 2040. This annual increase, equivalent to the addition of an average city of 230,000 inhabitants, maintains significant pressure on infrastructure, basic services and resource management .

Changing Demographic Structure: Opportunities and Challenges

The transition induces structural changes that offer a “demographic window of opportunity” , while creating new challenges:

1. Window of Opportunity (15-59 years): The proportion of working-age people is increasing relative to dependents, offering potential for economic growth. However, this requires effective strategies for integrating and employing workers to be fully exploited.
2. Youth Declining Population (Under 15): The number of young people is expected to decline from 9.76 million in 2024 to around 7.8 million in 2040. This decline represents a potential lever for improving the quality of education and strengthening human capital by promoting the transition to vocational and higher education.
3. Accelerated Aging: The proportion of people over 60 is a strong structural trend , rising from 13.8% in 2024 to 19.5% in 2040 (+58%). Aging, combined with increased life expectancy and the nuclearization of families, is testing intergenerational solidarity and requiring an overhaul of the social protection system , particularly pension schemes and the management of chronic diseases.

Urbanization, Households and Migration

1. Rapid Urbanization: Rural exodus and urban expansion are driving the urbanization rate from 62.8% in 2024 to 69.2% in 2040 (28 million urban dwellers). Faced with this growth, Morocco must adopt an integrated territorial development strategy to reduce spatial and social disparities.
2. Household Evolution: The average size of households is shrinking (from 3.9 to 3.3 people between 2024 and 2040) while their number increases by 32.5%, reaching 12.3 million . This dynamic, linked to individualization, requires the construction of nearly 3 million additional homes , while ensuring the quality of housing and solutions for vulnerable populations.
3. Bidirectional Migration: Historically a country of emigration, Morocco is experiencing increasing inbound migration (more than 148,000 foreigners, mostly Sub-Saharan Africans, in 2024, i.e. +76.2% compared to 2014) and returns of its migrants. These flows call for integration policies focused on employment and social cohesion.

Conclusion: An Opportunity That Requires a Global Response

The HCP emphasizes that these changes influence all aspects of Moroccan life and require an integrated vision of public policies . To seize this historic opportunity for growth and modernization , Morocco must strengthen its education system, organize its urbanization, create decent jobs and guarantee appropriate social protection. The speed of this demographic transition requires coherent institutional and social responses to support society.