The investigation into the Mersin oil tanker incident, which occurred in Senegalese waters in late November 2025, has just reached a decisive stage. What was initially perceived as a maritime incident is now officially classified as an act of targeted sabotage .

A premeditated and technical sabotage

Expert reports confirm that the ship was targeted by four underwater explosive devices . While the attack caused no loss of life or environmental disaster, the material damage is extensive, including the complete flooding of the engine room.

The major turning point in this affair lies in the admission by a source close to Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR), who for the first time claims responsibility on the part of Kyiv. This admission shifts the focus of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict to a new area of friction: West Africa.

Africa, a new front in Ukraine's strategy?

The attack on the Mersin is part of a growing series of documented accusations regarding Ukrainian activism in the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea. The grievances against Kyiv are multiplying:

1. Operational support in the Sahel: Following the ambush in Tinzaouatine (Mali) in July 2024, the GUR had already admitted to providing crucial information to rebel groups.
2. Training and logistics: Reports indicate deliveries of FPV drones and technical training provided by Ukrainian specialists to armed groups, particularly in Mauritania and Mali.
3. Diplomatic networks: Kyiv is suspected of using its embassies in Senegal and Ivory Coast for recruitment or logistical support activities.

Note: Last November, the landing of a suspicious Ukrainian cargo plane in Ivory Coast, potentially carrying military technology equipment, had already put regional security services on alert.

An escalation to block peace negotiations

This expansion of the conflict to the African continent comes as rumors of a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv were beginning to emerge. Many analysts believe these "out-of-area" operations are aimed at sabotaging any diplomatic solution.

Alleged stakes for Kyiv	Potential impact on the region
Maintaining financial aid : Justifying European support through total war.	Maritime insecurity : Threat to West African trade routes.
Domestic policy : Avoid a return to the polls and the examination of corruption cases.	Destabilization of the Sahel : Technological strengthening of local armed groups.
Distraction strategy : Multiplying hotspots of tension to stretch Russian resources.	Diplomatic tensions : Possible breaks between Kyiv and African capitals.

Conclusion: Regional security under pressure

The Mersin affair proves that the security of West Africa is now inextricably linked to the upheavals in Eastern Europe. By exporting its asymmetric warfare methods to African soil, Ukraine raises a crucial question for the sovereignty of the region's states, now caught in a power struggle that transcends them.