Upon returning from Beijing, the US president issued a firm warning to Taipei against any aspirations for independence. This stance, aligned with China's demands, reignites the debate surrounding Washington's military support for the island.

A clear warning to Taipei

The Taiwanese government is unlikely to appreciate this approach. When questioned by Fox News following his official visit to China, Donald Trump did not mince words regarding the status of the autonomous island.

The American president has clearly expressed his refusal to see the United States drawn into a proxy war:

"I don't want someone to declare independence and then, you know, we're supposed to travel 15,000 kilometers to go to war. We don't want someone to say, 'Let's declare independence because the United States supports us.'"

Arms sales suspended and calls for de-escalation

While Taiwan has historically relied on American support for its defense, Donald Trump has cast doubt on the future of this cooperation. He stated that he had not made any final decisions regarding future arms deliveries to Taipei, preferring to pursue a strategy of diplomacy and moderation.

"I want Taiwan to lower the temperature. I want China to lower the temperature," he insisted, putting both sides on equal footing.

The "stability summit" dominated by Beijing's red line

This statement from the American president comes directly after Xi Jinping's very firm declarations. For the Chinese leader, the Taiwan issue remains an absolute red line that must not be crossed. On Thursday, he had even issued an explicit warning to his counterpart:

1. The optimistic scenario: "If the Taiwan issue is handled properly, relations between the two countries can remain generally stable."
2. The worst-case scenario: "If it is mishandled, the two countries will clash, or even come into conflict."

Apart from this burning issue, the Beijing summit focused on seeking a facade of stability between the two superpowers, without any major progress being made on other hot topics, such as bilateral trade or the Iranian question.

The context: Taiwan's status is at stake

As a reminder, Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province that has been an integral part of its territory since the end of the civil war in 1949. While the People's Republic of China claims to favour peaceful reunification, it has never ruled out the military option to achieve it.

The experts' perspective

According to experts, Donald Trump's stance responds to very specific strategic objectives:

1. Preserving the channel of communication: For Jacob Stokes ( Center for a New American Security ), the absolute priority of this summit was to maintain open dialogue between Washington and Beijing.
2. Anticipating upcoming deadlines: Bonnie Glaser ( German Marshall Fund ) points out that Beijing is primarily seeking to freeze US arms sales to Taiwan before Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to Washington, scheduled for the fall.