As early rains settle in Antananarivo, an alarming observation is becoming clear: vigilance collapses among the inhabitants of the red zones, and official signage disappears.

The red flags disappear, but the danger remains.

In Antananarivo's neighborhoods prone to landslides and rockfalls, vigilance has plummeted. Residents seem to have forgotten the past risks, a phenomenon illustrated by the notable absence of red warning flags this year, particularly on Manjakamiadana Hill.

"These flags should be returned. Almost no one leaves their home anymore, they are no longer afraid of danger," warns Suzanne Razanamandimby , secretary of the fokontany of Tsimialonjafy, an area already heavily affected.

Some residents even believe the danger has passed. A resident of Manjakamiadana mentions the absence of landslides and collapses for "a few years," attributing this lull to preventative work, such as improvements to rainwater drainage systems. An official from the Civil Security Response Organization (ORSEC) for the Antananarivo Urban Municipality (CUA) confirms that no such accidents have been reported for two years.

Manjakamiadana: A permanent red zone

Despite local optimism, authorities are urging caution. Dr. Lalah Andriamirado , head of department at the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC), is categorical: the Manjakamiadana hill is and remains a permanent red zone.

"There are still rocks that could collapse. The risk remains closely linked to rain, the main triggering factor," recalls Dr. Andriamirado.

Retaining walls: Another lethal threat

In addition to the natural risks associated with the rocks, fokontany officials are reporting another imminent danger: the fragility of some support structures.

“We have observed cracks in the retaining walls. If they collapse, they could fall onto houses below,” warns an official from the Andafiavaratra fokontany (village). It is crucial to remember that wall collapses have already caused fatal accidents in Antananarivo and its surrounding areas in recent years.

Urgent call for vigilance

The rainy season has started earlier than usual, and Madagascar's meteorological service is forecasting more rainfall this week in the Highlands. The public is urged to maintain a high level of vigilance, with or without visible warning signs.

The BNGRC confirms that it conducts regular awareness campaigns and has mobilized agents to monitor the evolving hazards. However, unmarked neighborhoods like Ambohimahitsy Ambohimangakely have been struck by tragedies during previous severe weather, proving that the absence of a red flag does not mean the absence of risk.