The slim hope for a lull in the fighting evaporated on Wednesday. While a dialogue seemed to be beginning at the start of the week, exchanges between Washington and Tehran turned into a verbal confrontation, pushing back the prospect of a ceasefire.

Threats of "hell" in exchange for refusal to negotiate

The White House has dramatically hardened its stance. Through his spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, Donald Trump warned that Iran would face unprecedentedly intense strikes—a veritable "hell" —if it did not accept American conditions. For Washington, Iran must admit its military defeat.

Tehran's response was immediate and scathing:

1. Abbas Araghchi (Iranian Diplomacy): He denies any ongoing discussions and asserts that talking about peace now would be "admitting defeat".
2. Donald Trump: Persists in saying that negotiations are taking place in secret, suggesting that Iranian leaders deny these contacts for fear of being assassinated by their own radicals.

The failure of international mediation

Despite the involvement of China and Pakistan (acting as intermediaries to transmit an American peace plan), no breakthrough has been recorded.

The content of the American proposal, which would follow the Israeli-American strikes of February 28, would remain a dead letter. Tehran seems determined to impose its own conditions and refuses to yield to military pressure.

Towards an escalation of the conflict?

Concern is growing about a geographical expansion of the war:

1. Threat to the Gulf: The speaker of the Iranian parliament fears an imminent invasion of a strategic island in the Gulf.
2. Maritime warfare: Iranian military sources threaten to open a "new front" in the strait linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, a crucial point for global trade, in the event of a US ground offensive.

In summary: Between Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy and Tehran's displayed "resistance", the Middle East is sinking into a perilous uncertainty for the global economy.