Two months after the presidential election, Ivorians return to the polls this Saturday , December 27 , to elect the 255 members of the National Assembly. While the election is marked by the withdrawal of Laurent Gbagbo's PPA-CI party, it is distinguished above all by an unprecedented proliferation of independent candidates.

The forces at play: Balance sheets versus checks and balances

The political landscape is crystallizing around two main blocs with opposing strategies:

1. The RHDP (ruling party): With over 200 candidates, the presidential camp is relying on its record in government. Its objective is clear: to maintain an absolute majority to guarantee legislative stability for the executive branch.
2. The PDCI-RDA (Opposition): Leading a list of 163 candidates, the main opposition party advocates for a balance of power. Occasionally allied with the FPI (particularly in Abidjan strongholds like Yopougon), the PDCI places the release of "prisoners of conscience" and a general amnesty law at the heart of its campaign promises.

The "X factor": The surge of freelancers

The most striking element of this election is the presence of nearly 800 independent candidates , representing approximately 60% of the political offering.

Internal dissent: The majority of these independent candidates are former members of the RHDP or PDCI parties. Not endorsed by their respective party leaderships, these dissidents could fragment the vote and cause the official candidates to lose in the most contested areas.

Although their historical electoral weight is modest (in 2021, they only garnered one-fifth of the votes), their influence should not be underestimated this year for two reasons:

1. Local roots: New local figures are entering the scene, focusing on proximity rather than partisan labels.
2. Future alliances: Traditionally, independents are used as a bargaining chip. During the previous legislative term, almost all of the unaffiliated elected officials (23 out of 25) ended up joining an established parliamentary group.

An election deprived of part of the opposition

The political picture remains incomplete following the boycott by the PPA-CI . Laurent Gbagbo's party chose to stay out of the electoral process to protest the arrest of several of its activists, thus leaving the field open to a duel between the government and the PDCI in many constituencies.