Climate change poses an unprecedented threat to global agriculture. According to a United Nations study published Wednesday, more than 90% of countries worldwide are at risk of declining yields of their main food crops by the end of the century.

The United Nations (UN) describes this situation as a " global scourge ". Its analysis, covering 19,000 regions and 176 countries, focused on six staple crops essential to global food security: maize, rice, wheat, soybeans, cassava and sorghum .

Dramatic impacts regardless of the scenario

The study models the future impact based on two greenhouse gas emission trajectories: an optimistic scenario (limited emissions) and a pessimistic scenario (continued increase). In both cases, the conclusions are alarming:

1. Production decline: For every degree Celsius of warming, the cumulative annual global production of these six food crops is expected to decrease by 4.4% compared to current needs.
2. Vulnerable regions: Countries with "more fragile" economies and "more obsolete" technologies are expected to suffer the greatest losses, including some regions considered to be "modern breadbaskets".

Africa and Asia on the front line

The UN emphasizes that sub-Saharan Africa and certain regions of Asia are " particularly vulnerable ", mainly due to their "fewer resources to adapt to climate change".

This situation highlights profound inequalities in the face of the climate crisis, as confirmed by other recent studies:

1. A study by the Center for Science and Environment (published the day before, under the title State of Africa's Environment 2025 ) highlighted the "inequalities in the distribution of global responsibilities and adaptive capacities."
2. Similarly, the Revue de la recherche scientifique (Revue-RS) , in a July paper, noted that "sub-Saharan Africa is among the most exposed and least prepared regions" for warming, calling for "fair climate justice".

The United Nations is therefore calling for urgent and ambitious action to mitigate emissions and strengthen adaptation capacities, particularly in the most threatened regions.